This edition of MenuMine Trend outlines our predictions for 2009 trends in foodservice. Tough economic times ahead will spur share of plate gains for Prepared Entrees vs Center of Plate entrees.

1. Gain for Prepared Meals

Tough economic times ahead will spur share of plate gains for Prepared Entrees vs Center of Plate entrees.  Right now there is a more than $5 difference between the average price of a Prepared Entrée ($8.95) and a COP entrée ($14.33).  Prepared Entrees such as chili, mac & cheese, spaghetti with meatballs, stir fried rice, chicken alfredo, pot pies, stew, carnitas bowls, pad thai, lasagna and others frequently come to the restaurant in a prepared state or they are easy to prepare in advance, thereby lowering costs.  With two to four ounces less protein than a COP entrée and a lot more carbs, Prepared Entrees will maintain their price advantage but will edge up in price.  Hot plated (or bowled) entrees are a requisite for restaurant menus otherwise we would all be eating more at C-Stores and Drive-Thrus.

2. Bowls are Multi Ethnic

Bowls emerged in 2006 with KFC’s Famous Bowl consisting of creamy potatoes, sweet kernel corn, bite size all-white crispy chicken topped with gravy and cheese.  Bowls offer the convenience and portion control of prepared entrees and they easily cross cultures. Jack in the Box re-introduced its Chicken Teriyaki Bowl in 2008 with steamed white rice, broccoli florets, carrots, all white meat chicken with teriyaki sauce.  New in 2008 from El Pollo Loco is Tamale Bowl, which is a chicken tamale accompanied by Spanish rice and pinto beans topped with jack and cheddar cheeses, colorado chili sauce and creamy sour cream.  In November, Popeye’s introduced its Big Easy Chicken Bowl with red beans, rice, pulled chicken and cajun gravy, shredded cheese, Louisiana Brand Hot Sauce and sour cream.  Bowls use processed diced or cubed meats.  In coming years, one can visualize bowls of any ethnicity particularly Mediterranean, Asian, Caribbean.  Bowls without a protein will be rejected by the consumer as simple side dishes.

3. Less Meat / More Carbs

When dining out, we have all become accustomed to eating a good quantity of food.  This won’t change, but the mix will vary.  Instead of serving portions with six or eight ounces of protein, look for three to four ounces of protein and expect to see sides and accompaniments make up the difference with lower costing beans, rice, pasta and potatoes.  The King of Carbs is the potato, which is on the menu of 91% of all foodservice operations.  And each foodservice operation serving potatoes (or using potatoes as an ingredient) has an average of 20 potato items on the menu. Beans are on 80% of menus with 10 bean items per average menu using.  Rice is on 68% of menus, with 11 rice items per menu and pasta is on the menus of 67% of operations with 8 pasta items per average operation using.  In the coming year, category incidence may not increase for any of the four leading carbs, nor may items per average operation, but number of servings will go up and so will product volume (tonnage).

4. American-Traditional Will Resurge

Menu items classified as American-Traditional cuisine (25% of all menu items) have always been the hero of chain menus, followed by Italian (19% share) and Mexican (10%).  It is estimated that an even greater share of menu servings is American-Traditional.  Entrees classified as American-Traditional cuisine (including center of plate entrees, prepared entrees, burgers, sandwiches and salads) have a median average menu price of $5.86, considerably lower than Mexican at $6.49 and Italian at $8.20. To ease budgetary pressures in 2009, consumers are going to fall back on tried and true items they grew up with like cheeseburgers, deli sandwiches, skillet breakfasts, chicken fried steak, baked potatoes, grilled cheese sandwiches, onion rings and roast chicken. In recent years it is true that flavor experimentation has proceeded at a blistering pace, but as we head into unfamiliar economic territory, American-Traditional, American-Deli and Healthy Light menu items will increase, both in menu presence and in number of servings.  In the year ahead,  cuisine diversity will slow down and American-Traditional, Healthy/Light and American Deli cuisine will grow and will pay the bills.

5. New Items Will Slow

The average number of new items added to menus of “Top 200” chains has steadily increased from 5.3 items in ’05 to 6.1 items in ’06 to 6.8 items in ’07 to 7.3 items in ’08.  When a new item is added to the menu, there is an 85% chance that another item gets thrown out.  The upcoming year will still see the average chain introduce seven items, but they will also be dropping 8 to 10 items. Menus at chains have expanded to the point where in 2003 the average chain had 48 Savory (non breakfast) items on the menu.  This went up to 50 items in 2005 and now rests at 56 items.  There is only so much room on menus.

6. Limited Time Offers will Double

The number of LTO’s at chains has increased but chains have offered only one or two per year.  LTO’s must have sizzle and value to increase traffic.   LTO’s are holiday and event oriented rather than spaced randomly throughout the year.  Papa John’s Dark Night Meal Deal is a recent example of an event oriented LTO as is Starbuck’s Gingersnap Latte or McDonalds Egg Nog Shake or Krispy Kreme’s Red Peppermint Iced Yeast Doughnut, all introduced as LTO’s in December 2008.  Earlier in the year, Wendy’s Baconator as well as KFC’s Smokey Chipotle Crispy Chicken Sandwich and IHOP’s Cheesecake Pancakes drew attention, customers and dollars.  Sometimes LTO’s are Add Backs, such as McDonalds McRib Sandwich (Nov ’08).  Look for some chains to publicize four to six LTO’s next year, but most will do two to three. About 40% of chains, however, will not engage in any sort of LTO promotion.

7. Smoked Flavors

Flavor is applied to menu items via cooking sauces, sandwich spreads, glazes, dips, marinades, rubs or coatings.  Protein flavoring as a process is increasing and will continue to do so, mainly for items that are simply “smoked” such as smoked ham, smoked bacon, smoked sausage, smoked chicken, smoked turkey or smoked baby back ribs.  Flavor specificity next year will continue to increase with meats that are hickory smoked, mesquite grilled, applewood smoked, oven roasted, honey BBQ’d, parmesan crusted, honey mustard coated, peppered, beer battered, tempura battered or coconut breaded.  Currently, 9% of chain and independent menu items detail a protein flavoring, but it is estimated that a far larger percentage actually are flavored.  Flavors imparted by the cooking process are powerful persuaders and sales will increase for menu items that are advertised as wood grilled, country fried, chargrilled, golden fried, brick oven baked, rotisserie roasted, pan fried, flame broiled, braised or blackened.

8. Fresh Assurance

The term “Fresh” invokes images of healthy, clean, tasty and peak of perfection.  On the menu, fresh is linked to product as in fresh fruit, fresh veggies, fresh basil, fresh greens fresh fish, fresh eggs and more.  Fresh is also linked to process as in fresh made, fresh baked, fresh brewed, fresh squeezed and more.  Fresh is mentioned on 80% of all restaurant menus in an average of ten items per restaurant operation. Naturally, Fresh cannot be associated with every single item on the menu, or else it would lose its punch.  Growth in the term “Fresh” will continue in 2009 but it will not come from multiple mentions on the menu but from new mentions paired with both product and process associations.

9. Monster Desserts Go Bite Size

Some chains have become very adept at creating Monster Desserts or desserts that have everything.  Good examples of Monster Desserts are Ben & Jerry’s Vermonster Sundae, Applebee’s Triple Chocolate Meltdown. Friday’s Brownie Obsession and Red Lobster’s Fudge Overboard. Monster Desserts are big and can be shared.  Monster Desserts contain four or more ingredients, usually an ice cream, yogurt or whip topping plus a cake, brownie, cookie, candy or nut topped with chocolate fudge, chocolate sauce or fruit sauce. Pressures of the pocketbook have forced chains to present downsized options, but new “bite size” desserts will become more common in 2009.  Already being offered are: Cheesecake Poppers by Arby’s, Cinn ‘n Bites by Nick-N-Willy’s, Mini Churros by Jack in the Box, Bananas Foster Bites by Wing Zone and even Mini Cannolis by Smith College.

10. Crispy and Tender Texture

Crispy (or Crisp) is the most frequently used qualitative measure describing the texture attribute of a menu item. Crispy is used by Fatburger to describe its new item Crispy Chicken Breast Sandwich. Mimi’s Café uses the term in its Crispy Seafood Duo and Hops Bar & Brewery uses it in Crispy Crab Cakes. Over half (52%) of all foodservice operations list at least one item on the menu that is crispy. While a very small 4% of all savory menu items use the word “crispy” to describe a menu item, 6% of all new items introduced in 2008 use the term crispy.  When the term crispy is used, there is a 90% chance the item being described is a protein and the balance of the time it is a salad or a breaded appetizer.  “Tender” is the second most frequently used word to describe the texture of a menu item. Two percent (2%) of all menu items use the word “Tender” and 30% of all operations use the word tender.  In the coming year, menu items that are crispy or tender or both will sell and they will sell more if advertised as such.